“Something close to the truth”
Dr. Kgosi Maepa predicts Cyril Ramaphosa will win with a margin of 374 delegates. We have some weeks to see if he’s close but outcomes of the Provincial General Councils (PGCs) for Limpopo and KZN will be out in the next day or two. We shall see if his predictions for those provinces are close….
The article is based on information I collected and collated over a period of eight  weeks. It is data and information that came from branch members and coordinators of both the Cde Cyril Ramphosa [CR] and Cde Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma [NDZ] campaigns.
It is clear so far that the Presidential contest will be between CR and NDZ. The article will therefore solely focus on CR and NDZ.
Moreover, the article is largely based on data and facts that came from Provincial General Councils [PGCs] in the seven  of the nine  provinces declared so far.
Assumptions are made on the two  remaining provinces of Limpopo and Kwazulu Natal [KZN].
The interest of the writer is to analyse information and data coming out of ANC branches and establish a pattern on the probable outcome.
It would have been interesting and more insightful to analyse important policy changes and shifts, unfortunately there was a lot less focus on the latter by both leaders and ANC members alike – the stakes are high and it seems the ANC is internally focused. The march of history will judge whether it was correct to focus internally and less on policy.
2. The hard facts – PGCs pronouncements
Northern Cape  – Delegates, 197
CR 154 [93%] = 183
NDZ 11 [7%] = 14
Western Cape  – Delegates, 182
CR 121 [90%] = 164
NDZ 13 [10%] = 18
*Free State  – Delegates, 409
CR 44 [21%] = 86
NDZ 209 [79%] = 323
Eastern Cape  – Delegates, 648
CR 423 [87%] = 564
NDZ 61 [13%] = 84
North West  – Delegates, 538
CR 45 [13%] = 70
NDZ 291 [87%] = 468
**Mpumalanga  – Delegates, 736
CR 117 [25%] = 184
NDZ 123 [27%] = 199
Unity 223 [48%] = 353
Gauteng  – Delegates, 508
CR 374 [85%] = 432
NDZ 64 [15%] = 76
Totals [2273 = 77%]:
CR = 1278 [56%]
NDZ 772 ***[i.e. if you include unity to NDZ (223) as her lobbyist argue, then] = 995 [44%]
****[Seven Provinces (2273) + Limpopo 515 + KZN 726 = 3514 = 100%]:
Limpopo  – Delegates, 643
CR 443 [86%] = 553
NDZ 72 [14%] = 90
KZN  – Delegates, 870
CR 176 [24%] = 209
NDZ 550 [76%] = 661
Totals [Facts (77%) + Assumptions (23%) = 3514 branches and 4723 delegates]:
*****Delegates total = 4723 [Not all branches went to BGMs, so this number will go down. For now, we will use the number 4723 as an estimate until then. 3514 represent 90% of total ANC branches that qualify for the National Conference 3514/3904 = 90%].
CR = 1278 + 443 + 176 = 1897 [54%] = 2550
NDZ 772 [i.e. if you include unity (223) as NDZ lobbyist argue] = 995 + 550 + 72 = 1617 [46%] = 2173
Branch margin of victory:
[1897 – 1617] = 280 branch nominations
4. Voting delegates count probabilities
Delegates count :
CR = 2550
NDZ = 2173
10% [Leadership] allocation = 4723 + 10% = 5195 which equals to 472 delegates for elected leadership:
ANCYL = 45 [CR 0 and NDZ 45]
ANCWL = 45 [CR 0 and NDZ 45]
ANCVL = 45 [CR 45 and NDZ 0]
PEC = 243 [CR 135 and NDZ 108]
NEC = 94 [CR 55 and NDZ 39]
Total of 10% [Leadership]:
CR = 235
NDZ = 237
GRAND TOTAL [4723 Branch delegates + 10% Leadership = 5195]:
CR = 2550 + 235 = 2785 [54%]
NDZ = 2173 + 237 = 2410 [46%]
[a] *Free State nominations were never openly declared by the Elecxion Agency and the ANC Elections Sub-committee. The numbers can therefore change in the end when audits are finalized. There is also a court matter pending which must also be resolved by the ANC NEC.
[b] **The Mpumalanga “Unity” issue, which represents a total of 223 nominations is 48% of the provincial nomination and some estimated delegates in the region of 353. The unity factor can be a surprise package to both groups – it should be watched and studied closely.
[c]***So far, NDZ lobbyist have claimed the estimated 223 “Unity” delegates to be NDZ voters, this claim is based on the assumption that Cde DD Mabuza is nominated in the NDZ line-up as the Deputy President and therefore he will influence the “Unity” delegates to go with NDZ.
[d]****An assumption is made in the article about Limpopo and KZN based on data collected from branch nominations in those provinces, the integrity and quality of data will be tested when the nomination results are finally announced
[e]***** When nominations started, 4723 was an official number of delegates. So far, 3514 branches are confirmed to have went to BGMs [Branch General Meetings] and they represent 90% of total ANC branches that qualify for the National Conference 3514/3904 = 90%].
This means that the total delegates of 4723 might reduce and the 10% [Leadership delegations] can also change as ma result.
The 10% leadership delegation depends on the official 90% of branch delegates allocated by the SGO [Secretary General’s Office].
The prediction is that CR will win with a margin of 374 delegates [2785 – 2410], which is almost equal to Northern Cape  and Western Cape  combined, which is 379.
The most important point to consider is that every delegate count and every vote makes a difference in an elective conference, especially of a gigantic movement like the ANC, which is in itself, a contested terrain.
My view is that anything is still possible to this end, my assumptions and associated predictions are not fait accompli by any chance, they are just an analysis as the process unfolds, I can be wrong, but I can also be right.
The lobby group that will win the conference would have done a lot of hard work and perfected the following critical areas:
[i] Looking after delegates and taking from opposition, especially those who are on the so called ‘fence’ and the weaker ones.
[ii] Avoiding complacency, laziness and procrastination.
[iii] Doing a continuous delegate count [i.e. warm bodies] from now, up until 5 minutes before voting.”It is not over until the fat lady sings”
[iv Communicating with different influential voices but one coherent message about their candidate.
[v] Telling the truth to each other [i.e. lobbying team members] and to voting delegates.
After all is said and done, no matter who wins in the end.
My solemn wish is for the ANC to have a peaceful and successful 54th National conference – with maximum discipline among delegates – that will be a step in the right direction and society will gain confidence in our glorious movement yet again.