The ANC’s 54th National Conference: Numbers, Facts, Assumptions And Predictions!

trk5stgfjziaygxi3lt0

“Something close to the truth”

trk5stgfjziaygxi3lt0

Dr. Kgosi Maepa predicts Cyril Ramaphosa will win with a margin of 374 delegates. We have some weeks to see if he’s close but outcomes of the Provincial General Councils (PGCs) for Limpopo and KZN will be out in the next day or two. We shall see if his predictions for those provinces are close….

1. Introduction

The article is based on information I collected and collated over a period of eight [8] weeks. It is data and information that came from branch members and coordinators of both the Cde Cyril Ramphosa [CR] and Cde Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma [NDZ] campaigns.

It is clear so far that the Presidential contest will be between CR and NDZ. The article will therefore solely focus on CR and NDZ.

Moreover, the article is largely based on data and facts that came from Provincial General Councils [PGCs] in the seven [7] of the nine [9] provinces declared so far.

Assumptions are made on the two [2] remaining provinces of Limpopo and Kwazulu Natal [KZN].

The interest of the writer is to analyse information and data coming out of ANC branches and establish a pattern on the probable outcome.

It would have been interesting and more insightful to analyse important policy changes and shifts, unfortunately there was a lot less focus on the latter by both leaders and ANC members alike – the stakes are high and it seems the ANC is internally focused. The march of history will judge whether it was correct to focus internally and less on policy.

2. The hard facts – PGCs pronouncements

Northern Cape [165] – Delegates, 197

CR 154 [93%] = 183
NDZ 11 [7%] = 14

Western Cape [134] – Delegates, 182

CR 121 [90%] = 164
NDZ 13 [10%] = 18

*Free State [253] – Delegates, 409

CR 44 [21%] = 86
NDZ 209 [79%] = 323

Eastern Cape [484] – Delegates, 648

CR 423 [87%] = 564
NDZ 61 [13%] = 84

North West [336] – Delegates, 538

CR 45 [13%] = 70
NDZ 291 [87%] = 468

**Mpumalanga [463] – Delegates, 736

CR 117 [25%] = 184
NDZ 123 [27%] = 199
Unity 223 [48%] = 353

Gauteng [438] – Delegates, 508

CR 374 [85%] = 432
NDZ 64 [15%] = 76

Totals [2273 = 77%]:

CR = 1278 [56%]

NDZ 772 ***[i.e. if you include unity to NDZ (223) as her lobbyist argue, then] = 995 [44%]

3. Assumptions

****[Seven Provinces (2273) + Limpopo 515 + KZN 726 = 3514 = 100%]:

Limpopo [515] – Delegates, 643

CR 443 [86%] = 553
NDZ 72 [14%] = 90

KZN [726] – Delegates, 870

CR 176 [24%] = 209
NDZ 550 [76%] = 661

Totals [Facts (77%) + Assumptions (23%) = 3514 branches and 4723 delegates]:

*****Delegates total = 4723 [Not all branches went to BGMs, so this number will go down. For now, we will use the number 4723 as an estimate until then. 3514 represent 90% of total ANC branches that qualify for the National Conference 3514/3904 = 90%].

CR = 1278 + 443 + 176 = 1897 [54%] = 2550

NDZ 772 [i.e. if you include unity (223) as NDZ lobbyist argue] = 995 + 550 + 72 = 1617 [46%] = 2173

Branch margin of victory:

[1897 – 1617] = 280 branch nominations

4. Voting delegates count probabilities

Delegates count [4723]:

CR = 2550
NDZ = 2173

10% [Leadership] allocation = 4723 + 10% = 5195 which equals to 472 delegates for elected leadership:

ANCYL = 45 [CR 0 and NDZ 45]
ANCWL = 45 [CR 0 and NDZ 45]
ANCVL = 45 [CR 45 and NDZ 0]
PEC = 243 [CR 135 and NDZ 108]
NEC = 94 [CR 55 and NDZ 39]

Total of 10% [Leadership]:

CR = 235
NDZ = 237

GRAND TOTAL [4723 Branch delegates + 10% Leadership = 5195]:

CR = 2550 + 235 = 2785 [54%]
NDZ = 2173 + 237 = 2410 [46%]

Notes:

[a] *Free State nominations were never openly declared by the Elecxion Agency and the ANC Elections Sub-committee. The numbers can therefore change in the end when audits are finalized. There is also a court matter pending which must also be resolved by the ANC NEC.

[b] **The Mpumalanga “Unity” issue, which represents a total of 223 nominations is 48% of the provincial nomination and some estimated delegates in the region of 353. The unity factor can be a surprise package to both groups – it should be watched and studied closely.

[c]***So far, NDZ lobbyist have claimed the estimated 223 “Unity” delegates to be NDZ voters, this claim is based on the assumption that Cde DD Mabuza is nominated in the NDZ line-up as the Deputy President and therefore he will influence the “Unity” delegates to go with NDZ.

[d]****An assumption is made in the article about Limpopo and KZN based on data collected from branch nominations in those provinces, the integrity and quality of data will be tested when the nomination results are finally announced

[e]***** When nominations started, 4723 was an official number of delegates. So far, 3514 branches are confirmed to have went to BGMs [Branch General Meetings] and they represent 90% of total ANC branches that qualify for the National Conference 3514/3904 = 90%].

This means that the total delegates of 4723 might reduce and the 10% [Leadership delegations] can also change as ma result.

The 10% leadership delegation depends on the official 90% of branch delegates allocated by the SGO [Secretary General’s Office].

5. Conclusion

The prediction is that CR will win with a margin of 374 delegates [2785 – 2410], which is almost equal to Northern Cape [197] and Western Cape [182] combined, which is 379.

The most important point to consider is that every delegate count and every vote makes a difference in an elective conference, especially of a gigantic movement like the ANC, which is in itself, a contested terrain.

My view is that anything is still possible to this end, my assumptions and associated predictions are not fait accompli by any chance, they are just an analysis as the process unfolds, I can be wrong, but I can also be right.

The lobby group that will win the conference would have done a lot of hard work and perfected the following critical areas:

[i] Looking after delegates and taking from opposition, especially those who are on the so called ‘fence’ and the weaker ones.
[ii] Avoiding complacency, laziness and procrastination.
[iii] Doing a continuous delegate count [i.e. warm bodies] from now, up until 5 minutes before voting.”It is not over until the fat lady sings”
[iv Communicating with different influential voices but one coherent message about their candidate.
[v] Telling the truth to each other [i.e. lobbying team members] and to voting delegates.

After all is said and done, no matter who wins in the end.

My solemn wish is for the ANC to have a peaceful and successful 54th National conference – with maximum discipline among delegates – that will be a step in the right direction and society will gain confidence in our glorious movement yet again.

END

#diariesofDrKgošiMaepa

10 Comments on "The ANC’s 54th National Conference: Numbers, Facts, Assumptions And Predictions!"

  1. pinky your bitchy fight with bo chiloane has blinded you to reality. maepa is a ramaphosa person and not objective.

    • Pinky Khoabane | December 5, 2017 at 2:02 pm | Reply

      Just deal with the article. I post many articles which are not objective and which come from people siding with one issue or faction or another. When it doesn’t suit you, you think its personal. Learn to debate the issue not the person, you’ll be a better person.

      You sound like an NDZ supporter and the usage of bitchy is quite befitting. I’ve been called many things and the only group which has called be bitchy or isifebe are you lot.

      Raise the debate baba not the noise and insults.

  2. limpopo NDZ delegates assembly yesterday had 191 delegates with 9 apologies, dream on.

  3. Its always disappointing that some people on the forums have to resort to labelling others when we should debate the issues raised. I am not a member of the ANC but find the obsession with these numbers fascinating.

    Ultimately I think the final results will be determined in the smoky rooms at the conference with lots of cash or promises of cash flying around. After all that is how politics function.

    • Pinky Khoabane | December 5, 2017 at 4:08 pm | Reply

      Fish Monger the obsession with numbers is not an ANC thing. Worldwide there’s this obsession with numbers in a political election. And the numbers always deceive. So instead of people attacking the writer’s “predicted” numbers, some resort to name calling – it’s the easiest and cheapest way out of dealing with an issue.

      There definitely is going to be lots of cash floating around – there has been already.
      In posting these numbers I had thought there would be one reader, at least, who would scrutinise them, posit a different view and numbers, and so by the end of the day when KZN & Limpopo had concluded their business, we would see who had been close.

      Im not a numbers person and have not scrutinised how far or close the author was to the final numbers.

      Instead of an intelligent discussion, Im hurled with insults. The poor art of debate in SA – attack the person not the issue but ultimately it exposes the level of intellect of the abuser.

  4. I have put the numbers on my spreadsheets and I will compare them to the final figures after the conference. That is when the true picture will emerge by comparing the projected to the actual outcomes.

  5. Jeff Koorbanally | December 6, 2017 at 7:05 am | Reply

    Analysis of Dr. Kgosi Maepa are a close to accurate prediction of a possible outcome.

    Notwithstanding the fact that voting of individual delegate at the conference are different to branch nominations.

    Numbers will be key to the final determining factor, lobbying individuals will be a game changer.

    NDZ Camp has been focusing precisely on this strategy, at grass root level, needless to also state that all three leagues will vote in her favor .

    My prediction is NDZ will win, with a narrow margin, at the end, unity is crucial for the survival of the anc irrespective who wins.

    • Jeff Koorbanally | December 6, 2017 at 7:25 am | Reply

      I am NDZ supporter!

      My prediction is beside that point.

      CR camp has put up a good & strong campaign, without any doubt,& had the money to do so.

      Cyril Ramaphosa has the ability to fool a lot of the people, but some of us see right through him, as he is nothing but a FAKE!

  6. Greg Alexander Mashaba | December 6, 2017 at 5:38 pm | Reply

    The labeling of my Comrade Pinky as a “bitch” by Mohale is very offensive and distasteful. It certainly has no place on this type of forum .That he chooses to hurl such an insult when we as a nation have just embarked on the period where we specifically discourage abuse of our female compatriots makes it even more galling. Unfortunately, I only picked it up today due to commitments elsewhere. I will refrain from further comment as I could end up stooping to the same abominable level.

    • Pinky Khoabane | December 7, 2017 at 9:32 am | Reply

      Thanks Cde Greg, I feel “protected”. And yes, we need to guard against stooping to the levels of those who hurl insults in the face of information they do not want to see and read. But then again, all they do is expose their level of intellect, which is so low that we ought to really ignore.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*